I get more and more disillusioned with "first past the pole" in a multi-way race. Anyone who declares the Iowa Democratic Caucus as anything other than a 3-way dead heat or the New Hampshire Democratic Primary as anything other than a 2-way dead heat (with Edwards making a distant but respectable third place) obviously forgets that more people voted against "the winner" than voted for them. They also forget that neither state is a "winner-take-all" delegate assignment election. The same goes for the Republicans, with McCain, Romney and Huckabee all turning in respectable vote percentages and delegate counts.
It's going to be a long and sloppy primary season. We've got Nevada and South Carolina coming up soon (along with the rogue caucuses and primaries in Wyoming, Michigan, Florida and Maine that violate party rules). Unless something goofy happens with
Democratic superdelegates and Republican unpledged delegates (Clinton already apparently has a fist full of Democratic superdelegates), we might even make it out of Super Tuesday without any candidate having enough delegates to gain the nomination.
Comments
Sigh.
I also really don't see Obama being a viable candidate either. He may be black but he's also mighty green. To green, in fact, for the top job. Perhaps in 2012 or '16 he might be more credible in that regard. And I can't see him knuckling under to accept the Veep slot with Hillary as the # 1.
Right now McCain looks awfully hot on the Republican side but it is still very, very early in the season to say much. There's still a great number of primaries coming up in the southern states and candidates like Thompson are banking on that. Also, Rudi elected NOT to compete in New Hampshire so who knows what results he'll now come up with.
Indeed it does look to be a genuine horse race and we've not had that for to long a while.
Madoc