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I get more and more disillusioned with "first past the pole" in a multi-way race. Anyone who declares the Iowa Democratic Caucus as anything other than a 3-way dead heat or the New Hampshire Democratic Primary as anything other than a 2-way dead heat (with Edwards making a distant but respectable third place) obviously forgets that more people voted against "the winner" than voted for them. They also forget that neither state is a "winner-take-all" delegate assignment election. The same goes for the Republicans, with McCain, Romney and Huckabee all turning in respectable vote percentages and delegate counts.

It's going to be a long and sloppy primary season. We've got Nevada and South Carolina coming up soon (along with the rogue caucuses and primaries in Wyoming, Michigan, Florida and Maine that violate party rules). Unless something goofy happens with Democratic superdelegates and Republican unpledged delegates (Clinton already apparently has a fist full of Democratic superdelegates), we might even make it out of Super Tuesday without any candidate having enough delegates to gain the nomination.


( 7 comments — Leave a comment )
Jan. 9th, 2008 05:52 am (UTC)
I must admit, this is the most interesting presidential election I've ever witnessed. Makes me wish I could vote!!
Jan. 9th, 2008 06:04 am (UTC)
And if you look at the delegate count on the R side, 2 time "loser" Romney has many more delegates than any other R.

Jan. 9th, 2008 07:56 am (UTC)
Romney won the rule-breaking Wyoming Caucus. That's where he got the rest of his delegates.
Jan. 9th, 2008 07:22 am (UTC)
At a recent fannish gathering I was talking with some Democratic party hacks (ahem, activists) and I felt inspired to say "smoke filled room!". They roundly pooh-poohed me. But I will say it again; "Smoke filled room!". Actually I'm fine if a consensus candidate emerges before the convention, but wow, who'd have thunk we'd have such a wide open race. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, "smoke filled" has a whole different meaning, and comes in a wide variety of designer flavors including tailpipe -- and brimstone.
Jan. 9th, 2008 08:41 am (UTC)
Alas, most of the analysts are pretty dumb, and they can't understand anything other than first-past-the-post themselves. After all, it's a horse race, so all you need is one more vote than any other candidate and you win. At least that's how most people seem to perceive it. Sigh.
Jan. 9th, 2008 10:57 am (UTC)
Democrats should be aware that Hillary probably can't win in a general election. Living in red state country, from what I'm seeing the nomination of her will be the only thing that can mobilize the Republicans to pull together a victory this time.

Jan. 9th, 2008 10:49 pm (UTC)

I also really don't see Obama being a viable candidate either. He may be black but he's also mighty green. To green, in fact, for the top job. Perhaps in 2012 or '16 he might be more credible in that regard. And I can't see him knuckling under to accept the Veep slot with Hillary as the # 1.

Right now McCain looks awfully hot on the Republican side but it is still very, very early in the season to say much. There's still a great number of primaries coming up in the southern states and candidates like Thompson are banking on that. Also, Rudi elected NOT to compete in New Hampshire so who knows what results he'll now come up with.

Indeed it does look to be a genuine horse race and we've not had that for to long a while.

( 7 comments — Leave a comment )